Modeling Intelligence Production Performance

Report No. ARL-CR-444
Authors: McLean, Marsha B.; Knapp, Beverly G.
Date/Pages: September 1999; 132 pages
Abstract: The objective of this effort was to develop an analysis framework and computer-based tool for simulating and evaluating the impacts of materiel, organizational, and personnel changes in the military intelligence (MI) production system. This tool was designed to assist the MI community in assessing new concepts for meeting commander's intelligence requirements of the future. A series of representational models was built first: conceptual, performance, and information quality. The Conceptual Model represented intelligence production as a simple input-process-output model, with nodes representing the functions required to produce intelligence and links representing the information flow. The Performance Model specified the behavioral tasks required to produce intelligence, taxonomy of human performance errors associated with the tasks, and the operational, scenario, and environmental variables that affect task performance. Finally, the Intelligence Quality Model quantified the results of information flow activity and linked the impact of task performance variables when operating on the information. A team of experts in behavioral science, modeling and simulation, and military intelligence built the Intelligence Production Model (IPM). The computer-based IPM was then built by linking these models using a rule-based logic structure and was accessed by a user interface designed to allow analysts to conduct case studies for a wide range of evaluation questions. The IPM runs in a Windows (trademark) based PC environment and is being applied to a number of questions raised by the MI operational community.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: September 1, 1999