A Method for Analyzing Survivability in the Context of a One-on-One Engagement

Report No. ARL-TR-2992
Authors: Jeffrey A. Smith
Date/Pages: July 2003; 37 pages
Abstract: We imagine a one-on-one engagement between two adversarial combat platforms, and we want to know who is victorious and who is not. The simple answer is that the victor lives while the vanquished dies. However, if our desire is meaningful analysis platform survivability, then this answer is insufficient. Our answer should reflect a more practical view of victory and defeat; one that illuminates the fate of each platform if we could repeatedly conduct this same engagement. Given that the current paradigm for platform survivability is layered survivability, we ask if there is a unified framework available with which to analyze the full range of survivability options layered survivability suggests. This paper proposes a framework built upon a mathematical construct called the stochastic duel. To construct our duel, we first consider one platform engaging a passive target and model that process via the techniques of renewal theory. From there, we model the one-on-one engagement as a series system, which allows us to apply the method of competing risks. With competing risk framework, we then derive a metric for the probability of survival. Finally, we extend this formalism to include survivability by relying on the concept of layered survivability.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: July 1, 2003