Effectiveness of Two Forecast Models for Stratiform Precipitation

Report No. ARL-TR-3188
Authors: Jeffrey E. Passner
Date/Pages: April 2004; 38 pages
Abstract: The U.S. Army Research Laboratory has developed a mesoscale model, the Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM), which is a hydrostatic model designed for boundary-layer applications for the Army. Using the basic assumption of Sundqvist in 1989, the model determines precipitation rates by the density of clouds. Since ARL receives 15-km Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) output from the Air Force Weather Agency, it was decided to study the skill in forecasting stratiform precipitation, precipitation rates, biases, and precipitation types from both the BFM and MM5. The precipitation type forecast is a post-processed routine developed by ARL and is used for both models. Results of this study during the winter months of 2003 showed that both models forecast much weaker precipitation rates for snow than rain although the models do well differentiating between rain and snow.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: April 1, 2004