Quantifying Uncertainty from Computational Factors in Simulations of a Model Ballistic System

Report No. ARL-TR-8074
Authors: Daniel J Hornbaker
Date/Pages: August 2017; 66 pages
Abstract: Uncertainty in simulations of a model ballistic system is studied, with a focus on factors that are primarily related to the numerical structuring of a problem, such as cell size, domain extent, and system orientation. Depth of penetration of a threat into a target is tracked as the primary quantity of interest. Overall, computational time serves as a secondary performance metric. Two different simulation codes developed at Sandia National Laboratories, CTH and ALEGRA, are employed in this investigation. This study provides a foundation for future explorations of uncertainty in ballistic simulations, as well as a template for investigation of uncertainty in simulations of other systems of interest.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: August 1, 2017