Machine-Learning Techniques for the Determination of Attrition of Forces Due to Atmospheric Conditions

Report No. ARL-TR-8304
Authors: Yasmina R Raby
Date/Pages: February 2018; 38 pages
Abstract: This report documents the findings of an attempt to model the attrition of forces due to atmospheric conditions. Machine-learning techniques, primarily the random forest algorithm, were used to explore the possibility of a correlation between aircraft incidents in the National Transportation Safety Board database and meteorological conditions. If a strong correlation could be found, it could be used to derive a model to predict aircraft incidents and become part of a decision support tool for mission planning purposes. While the random forest algorithm was able to discover some consistent predictors across a variety of data sets while classifying aircraft incidents related to weather, there were some concerns regarding the error rate in the final result of the classification process. This report documents the efforts to define a model and provide lessons learned toward future attempts to refine the results and generate a model that addresses the attrition of forces due to atmospheric conditions using machine-learning techniques.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: February 1, 2018