Traditional Statistical Measures Comparing Weather Research and Forecast Model Output to Observations Centered Over Utah

Report No. ARL-TR-5422
Authors: John Raby, Jeff Passner, Robert Brown, and Yasmina Raby
Date/Pages: January 2011; 336 pages
Abstract: The Model Assessment Project automated legacy scripts produce model validation statistics using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Model Evaluation Tools (MET) software. The project also accessed the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) mesonet observation data to augment the legacy National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) PrepBUFR METAR observational data to provide a twentyfold increase in the number of observations to compare with model forecasts. MET Point-Stat was used to generate statistics based on the point differences between the model forecast and the observations. The statistics were then aggregated to produce a summary of results for twenty case study days for nine surface meteorological variables. The model forecasts were generated by the Nowcast Modeling Project in support of a request from Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to compare the performance of the Advanced Research Version of the Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF-Advanced Research WRF [ARW]) using seven different model parameter settings. These model runs were executed over the Dugway, Utah area and evaluation of the statistical output is discussed with some graphical examples.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: January 1, 2011