Validation Study of Operational Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM) Over Western Asian Regions

Report No. ARL-TN-118
Authors: Teizi Henmi, John W. Raby, John Cruncleton, and Jim Kratzer
Date/Pages: December 2002; 33 pages
Abstract: The current version of the Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM) on the U.S. Army Integrated Meteorological System was evaluated by comparing the model's forecast data with observed meteorological data. Two model domains adjacent to Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan were selected to run the BFM for 24-hr forecast periods in operational mode. Due to the limited number of observation stations and data, the results obtained in this study should be regarded as qualitative. The following findings were obtained: For surface temperature, the BFM forecast data were in good agreement with the surface observation data for both Iran and Pakistan model domains. Relative humidity forecast by the BFM was also in fair agreement with observation. The BFM showed the tendency to underforecast wind speed throughout the entire forecast period. Similarly, forecast values of horizontal wind vector components u and v tended to be smaller than observed values. Surface wind analysis data calculated by the MM5, AVN, and NOGAPS over western Asia were also compared with the observed data, showing slightly better statistical results than the BFM over the Iranian model domain. Statistical intercomparisons of different models operated over different model domains, grid configuration, and different initialization data were not valid comparisons. It is suggested that a validation study of the BFM be done over the area where a large number of surface and upper air data are regularly available and where topographical features are complex enough to generate diurnal wind patterns, such as Utah.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: December 1, 2002