Application of a Fuzzy Verification Technique for Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate—Nowcast (WRE–N) Model

Report No. ARL-TR-7849
Authors: John W Raby
Date/Pages: October 2016; 58 pages
Abstract: Spatial forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models of meteorological variables supporting US Army battlefield operations are an integral part of the products available for the Staff Weather Officer's use in providing mission forecasts. Army tactical decision aids (TDAs) ingest these forecasts; they are fused with information on weather thresholds, which impact the performance of systems and missions. This technical report presents some preliminary results obtained from the application of a nontraditional fuzzy verification method to evaluate the ability of NWP to simulate spatial variable fields filtered by the application of a threshold. Fuzzy methods have been developed in recent years to overcome limitations encountered when applying traditional verification techniques to high-resolution NWP forecasts, which often result in misleading assessments of forecast accuracy. This study illustrates how one fuzzy verification technique available from the Model Evaluation Tools Grid-Stat tool can be applied to the assessment of the Army Research Laboratory's Weather Running Estimate–Nowcast (WRE–N) model forecasts to which a threshold has been applied. Preliminary results suggest the fuzzy verification technique applied to the WRE–N provides an assessment of this unique aspect of model performance.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: October 1, 2016