Forecast Model Uncertainty; MM5 Accuracy Over Utah

Report No. ARL-TR-3170
Authors: Barbara Sauter
Date/Pages: March 2004; 46 pages
Abstract: Researchers are investigating various approaches to determine and portray weather forecast uncertainty. Methods requiring extensive computing power on the battlefield or massive data communications to the end user will not be implemented in the near future. This study investigated weather forecast uncertainty through a compilation of forecast errors in the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) over 50 winter days in Utah. The percentage of forecasts meeting the Army's stated accuracy requirements for temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, and wind direction is highlighted.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: March 1, 2004