Domain-Level Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate–Nowcast (WRE–N) Model

Report No. ARL-TR-7881
Authors: John W Raby and Jeffrey A Smith
Date/Pages: November 2016; 46 pages
Abstract: The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is a numerical weather-prediction model that has been used for many applications including My Weather Impacts Decision Aid. WRF is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which has developed a suite of Model Evaluation Tools (MET) to evaluate the accuracy of WRF forecasts. In this technical report, we discuss our use of the MET to assess the domain-level errors of the Weather Running Estimate–Nowcast (WRE–N) model. In addition, the domain-level errors were calculated for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, which is used to initialize the WRE–N. The output used for this study was generated using 3 different configurations of the WRE–N, with and without observation assimilation, that were run over 2 different triple-nested domains centered near San Diego, California. We selected 5 case-study days in February–March 2012 with varied weather conditions. The results of the study suggest the observation assimilation improves the forecast under certain conditions. The results show the WRE–N generally performs better than the GFS model with some limitations. More comprehensive verification studies are needed to conclusively determine the value added by varying configurations of the WRE–N.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: November 1, 2016