Modeling Cyber-Physical War-Gaming

Report No. ARL-TR-8079
Authors: Edward J M Colbert; Alexander Kott; Lawrence P Knachel III; Daniel T Sullivan
Date/Pages: August 2017; 46 pages
Abstract: War games are simulations of what could happen in the real world. War games can serve multiple functions, such as training, testing a new system, testing existing processes, or discovering new knowledge. However, theoretic foundations and guidance for cyber war games are lacking. Here we illustrate how operational military war games and cyber war games share similar constructs. We also provide a game-theoretic approach to mathematically analyze attacker and defender strategies in cyber war games. Using a fairly realistic simulation, we empirically demonstrate applying game-theory models to quantify risks and benefits when assessing strategies.
Distribution: Approved for public release
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Last Update / Reviewed: August 1, 2017